After getting all four of our picks last week correct, we are back for another edition of NFL plays on PrizePicks.
While there are six wild-card playoff games on the NFL schedule this weekend, we will focus our attention on the two Sunday games.
Let’s try to carry some of last week’s momentum into the playoffs.
Matthew Stafford (Rams vs. Lions) more than 275.5 passing yards
This game is full of revenge narratives, as both starting quarterbacks used to play for the opposing team.
Stafford returns to Detroit where he spent the first 12 seasons of his career. He’s having an excellent season and has topped 275.5 passing yards in four of his last five games.
We don’t have to worry about weather with this game being in a dome, and the matchup sets up well for the Rams through the air.
On the season, the Lions are first in DVOA against the run, while being in the bottom half of the league in both DVOA against the pass and drop-back EPA.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions vs. Rams) more than 7.5 receptions
We’ll have to see if Sam LaPorta is able to play in this game. He hyperextended his knee in Week 18 and wasn’t able to log any sort of practice until Friday.
Even if he’s out there, he’ll likely be less than 100%.
Kalif Raymond has already been ruled out. If LaPorta is out or limited, that should lead to more targets for St. Brown, who already owns a 28% target share on the season.
We see this every year in the playoffs, when the pressure mounts, quarterbacks tend to rely on their favorite target. And there’s little doubt who that is for Jared Goff.
Betting on the NFL?
Dak Prescott (Cowboys vs. Packers) fewer than 0.5 interceptions
I don’t believe I have touched the interception market on PrizePicks this season, but I feel good about this pick.
Prescott has only thrown an interception in seven of 17 games this season. At home, he only threw three picks.
The Cowboys are large favorites against the Packers, who are 26th in DVOA against the pass, 16th in sacks per game and 31st in interceptions this season.
A fluky play could always ruin this, but I expect a clean performance from Prescott on Sunday.