Favorites weren’t exactly crushing it on Sunday.
After the chalk had been on a strong run through the first four weeks, they had a slight setback in Week 5, going 5-7 against the spread.
Our first read of the betting lines was another mixed bag. The Broncos’ spread did move from 5.5 down to 4 and even 3.5 in some spots, setting up a perfectly good middle spot for bettors.
The Giants, interestingly enough, did not receive any further bets from the public to move the line, as the Saints ultimately won despite Big Blue taking a 14-3 lead in the first half.
Picks are now 4-4 if you’re tailing the early reads, not middling at all. Below, we check out Week 6 of the NFL season.
NFL Week 6 early predictions
Eagles -7 vs. Giants
The Eagles have dominated this matchup against the Giants for the better part of a decade, and I suspect the line to move in Philadelphia’s direction after “Monday Night Football.”
There has been some money coming in on the Giants, as the line moved from 7.5 to 7 at the time of writing.
What concerns me about the Giants in this matchup is the overwhelming evidence that Big Blue is terrible against the run.
Big Blue’s run defense is rated No. 32 against the run in DVOA.
Betting on the NFL?
The Eagles run the ball 28.4 times per game, the eighth-most in the NFL, and I suspect that they run through the Giants’ run defense.
Look for this line to move closer to eight by game time, at which point you will have a middle opportunity.
Chiefs vs. Lions: Over 49.5
Kansas City hasn’t played yet in Week 5, but what I saw last week was a Chiefs offense that was a well-oiled machine that will continue to improve as the season progresses.
Xavier Worthy’s health will have some effect on this line, and his status for “Monday Night Football” against the Jaguars is unknown.
Still, the Chiefs’ offense is rated No. 7 in DVOA, while the Lions are No. 4 in DVOA. Two elite offensive powerhouses will match up for our wagering pleasure on Sunday night.
The Lions just lost both starting cornerbacks, Terrion Arnold and DJ Reed, to injury, so it’s a fair assumption that this line is just too low right now.
This line could move to 52 with a strong performance tonight against an elite Jaguars defense. Even if there is poor performance and Worthy doesn’t play, I will take this game to go over the total.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
