Well, this has all happened pretty quickly, hasn’t it?
The Jets went from a blowout loss to the Christian McCaffrey-less 49ers in Week 1 to more than a touchdown favorite three weeks later.
That’s what can happen when a Hall of Fame quarterback takes control of an offense and starts to clean up four decades of hazardous waste (dotted with fleeting competence by the likes of Ken O’Brien, Vinny Testaverde, Chad Pennington, Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick).
Last Thursday’s offensive performance was as good as it gets for the Jets. They became the first offense in the Super Bowl era to have 400-plus yards of offense, 40 minutes of possession, zero turnovers, seven sacks and zero touchdowns allowed.
But here’s the thing: All of that dominance amounted to just a 24-3 victory. Josh Allen put up 34 points in the first half of the Bills’ 47-10 rout of the Jaguars. That’s the level the Jets are hoping Rodgers can take them to, but it will take time. Certainly longer than this, even as he’s finding ways to unwrap new offensive weapons each week.
The strength of the Jets schedule so far can also be called into question. The 49ers haven’t won since. The Titans haven’t won at all. The Patriots’ surprise win over the Bengals has been muted by Cincinnati’s 0-3 start.
The Broncos (yes, we got around to mentioning them) come to MetLife off a 26-7 win at previously undefeated Tampa Bay.
It looks as if Sean Payton is getting rookie quarterback Bo Nix up to speed. After two rough starts, last week Nix went 25 of 36 for 216 yards with no sacks, no interceptions and 47 yards rushing.
Meanwhile, the Broncos sacked Baker Mayfield seven times. Rodgers has shown some mobility, but this could be a problem as Olu Fashanu fills in for Morgan Moses.
The pick: Broncos +7.5 (-110, Fanatics).
ATLANTA FALCONS (-2.5) over New Orleans Saints
Falcons are 1-2 after a win in Philadelphia that should have been a loss and a defeat to the Chiefs that could have been a victory. Atlanta suffered two huge injuries on offense Sunday night, losing center Drew Dalman to IR and possibly RT Kaleb McGary for this game. The Saints, who went from 47 and 44 points to 12 last week, are sweating out Alvin Kamara’s rib and hip injuries.
Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Packers have stoned us two weeks in a row in this space with backup QB Malik Willis. Now Jordan Love might be returning from his MCL injury but will have to face Brian Flores’ diabolical defense, which has conquered the 49ers and Texans. Have faith in Sam Darnold, and maybe the small spread will matter.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS
Yes, this is taking an 0-3 team that just lost by 37 points and is traveling on a short week. Maybe I’m just in denial, but I don’t believe Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson are this bad. Texans are averaging just 18.8 ppg and have injuries on offense to Joe Mixon, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz, so they may need to try to scrape by.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+1.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers
Haven’t been too impressed with the Colts so far, though Jonathan Taylor is showing signs with consecutive 100-yard rushing games. This selection is more about some doubts the Steelers will go 4-0 with Justin Fields quarterbacking an offense that has scored three touchdowns in three games.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+2) over Philadelphia Eagles
Though both teams have some key injuries, including vital nose tackle Vita Vea for the Bucs, I can’t begin to imagine what the Eagles would look like offensively if they are missing WRs A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith and RT Lane Johnson. Plus the Bucs will be amped after a blowout home loss to Denver last week, and they did destroy the Eagles, 32-9, in the playoffs in January.
Cincinnati Bengals (-4) over CAROLINA PANTHERS
Andy Dalton had a big win in Las Vegas as his Panthers teammates looked thrilled to be out from under Bryce Young. The Raiders also played a terrible game. Now Dalton will be without WR Adam Thielen, and though Cincinnati’s defense has been atrocious, it’ll be hard for the Red Rifle to trade points with Joe Burrow and his former team in this one.
Los Angeles Rams (+3) over CHICAGO BEARS
Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay essentially used mirrors and a perfect final 10 minutes to beat the 49ers. Though winning might not be sustainable without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, I also don’t feel inclined to lay points with rookie QB Caleb Williams and a Bears team that has scored three offensive touchdowns.
Washington Commanders (+3.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS
For some this is an automatic fade of the Commanders because of the situation — cross-country travel on a short week after a big Monday night win. They’ll miss Austin Ekeler, too. There’s a path to a cover here, though, with top Arizona receiving threats Marvin Harrison Jr. (quad) and Trey McBride (concussion) questionable at midweek.
New England Patriots (+10.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
As much as the stats say the Patriots were dominated by the Jets, the biggest problem was the cluster of injuries on the offensive line. LG Sidy Sow could be back for this one. And here’s a cool stat from Action Network’s Evan Abrams: The biggest underdog on the board in each of the first three weeks has won outright (first time that’s happened in 70 years).
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
What would the Chargers have left if any combination of Justin Herbert, OLs Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, and DE Joey Bosa were to miss the game (to go along with S Derwin James’ suspension). Travis Kelce looks so sad … Patrick Mahomes will try to cheer him up with a couple of touchdown passes.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-2) over Cleveland Browns
If the Raiders players have any pride, they’ll respond to coach Antonio Pierce’s “business decisions” rip after last week’s embarrassing home loss to Carolina. There’s talent, with Davante Adams and Brock Bowers, and they did win in Baltimore just one week earlier.
Buffalo Bills (+2.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS
Josh Allen and the Bills are playing the best football in the league to start the season. Getting points? Yes, please! And no lead is safe with the Ravens, who blew a 10-point lead to the Raiders then almost coughed up a 22-point lead at Dallas.
Betting on the NFL?
Monday
Tennessee Titans (+1) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
The dumbest assertion in last week’s picks was that Skylar Thompson would be able to utilize all of the Dolphins offensive stars. Nope, but then again, they have scored just 33 points including Tua Tagovailoa’s time. Figuring the Titans are good enough to win one game per month.
Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) over DETROIT LIONS
You can pick apart the teams Seattle has beaten on the way to its 3-0 start if you’d like, but here’s a tidbit to remember: Last season as defensive coordinator of the Ravens, new Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald dismantled Jared Goff and the Lions, 38-6.
Best bets: Raiders, Bills, Seahawks
Lock of the week: Raiders (Locks 1-2 in 2024)
Last week: 8-8 overall, 3-0 Best Bets
Thursday: Giants.
