We got a little bit of everything in No. 6 Louisville’s 83-79 victory over No. 11 South Florida on Thursday.
The Cardinals pummeled the Bulls, who were a very trendy underdog, in the early going, but then found themselves under heaps of pressure as South Florida nearly erased a 22-point deficit in the final 11:25.
A win’s a win, but the Cardinals know they’ll need to be better if they’re going to pull an upset against No. 3 Michigan State on Saturday.
Sparty is a 4.5-point favorite over Louisville for this Round of 32 battle in Buffalo.
Michigan State vs. Louisville odds, prediction
While Louisville was messy in its win over USF, it was an easy day at the office for Sparty against North Dakota State.
Michigan State got ahead early, expanded the lead, and then never looked back.
It was the exact type of script that higher seeds strive for in Round 1. Tom Izzo was able to ease off the pedal after the game was in hand, and rotate his starters.
There are no new injury or fatigue concerns for Michigan State, but the Cardinals are still likely to be without star guard Mikel Brown Jr., who missed the win over South Florida.
While the Cardinals did escape with a win, Brown’s absence was hard to ignore.
Louisville turned the ball over a season-high 22 times against USF and had a nightmarish time dealing with the Bulls’ press, something that Izzo and his staff will certainly have noted ahead of Saturday’s clash.
And even if Louisville is able to tidy things up, there is another concerning sign in the tale of the tape.
Betting on College Basketball?
Michigan State, as usual, is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, and should have a massive advantage on the glass against Louisville.
KenPom and Bart Torvik have this game projected within the 4.5-point spread, but the concerning signs from Round 1, coupled with Brown’s likely absence, make me comfortable with laying the points with Sparty.
The Play: Michigan State -4.5 (-110, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
