Legendary Democratic strategist James Carville cautioned Democrats against falling into a false sense of security as polls show Vice President Kamala Harris leading the race against former President Donald Trump.
The longtime Democratic strategist warned Democrats during Friday night’s “Real Time With Bill Maher” that while Harris is currently polling ahead of Trump, she will have to work harder to win the Electoral College.
Harris is currently polling ahead of Trump nationally by less than two points, according to a Real Clear Politics Average, however, the former president is leading in several battleground swing states. The polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight has Harris leading by 3.6 percentage points.
“I challenge Democrats with some caution here. First of all, most want to say we have to win by three in the popular vote to win the Electoral College. So when you see a poll that says we two up. Well, that’s actually, you’re one down if the poll is correct,” Carville said.
“The other thing is Trump traditionally, when he’s on the ballot, chronically under-polls,” Carville added.
In late August 2020, national polls predicted that President Biden was up by 9 points over Trump — but he won by just 4.4 percentage points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was up by 6.5 points in polls. She famously won the popular vote by 2 points — but lost the Electoral College.
“Traditionally, with Trump on the ballot… Democrats say, ‘Oh James, you’re a Debbie Downer.’ I’m not. I’m just telling you, you got to win by three,” the strategist added.
Other recent polls have shown a slight edge for the former president, including one done Friday by Rasmussen Reports that had Trump ahead 49% to 46%.
The polling numbers are expected to shift once again after independent Robert F. Kennedy, who was polling at 4% according to Rasmussen, dropped out of the race on Friday and endorsed Trump.
While Rasmussen’s findings are an outlier among recent national polling, the conservative-leaning firm was among the closest firms to the final result in 2016.
