With early balloting starting Wednesday, Grand Canyon State voters appear ready to elect Donald Trump president again after choosing Joe Biden in 2020 by barely 10,000 votes, as new polls show key demographics moving away from Kamala Harris.
Trump leads the vice president in both a multi-candidate ballot test (49% to 47%, with 3% undecided and 1% backing Jill Stein) and a head to head (50% to 48%) in the race for 11 pivotal electoral votes in the battleground state on the southern border, per an AARP poll released Tuesday,
The survey of 1,358 likely voters was conducted Sept. 24 to Oct. 1 by a bipartisan pair of pollsters: Republican Fabrizio Ward and Democratic Impact Research.
Voters aged 50 and up are key here, with Trump at 52% to 45% in the multi-candidate test, giving him what pollster Bob Ward called a “clear lead” with the demographic. Trump also leads by 3 points with women over 50, Ward noted.
And Trump runs just 4 points behind Harris with voters under the age of 50 (45% to 49% for the Democrat).
The ex-prez is especially strong with 50- to 64-year-olds, taking 55% to 41% for Harris. He is also up 11 points with men and 12 points with men over 50. Whites over 50 back Trump by 14 points.
Impact Research’s Jeff Liszt noted on a press call Tuesday that older people make up 55% of the electorate and are more motivated to participate in the process than younger ones, meaning these are the highest-propensity voters at stake in the state.
As in many polls, Trump also dominates with voters without college degrees, taking 56% to 40% for Harris.
Senate candidate Kari Lake doesn’t benefit from these trends, though, with Rep. Ruben Gallego leading 51% to 44% overall and holding his own among the same groups that could boost Trump to victory.
Voters 50 and older are split between the two, at 48% each, with a “net shift in Gallego’s favor” according to Ward; independent voters are driving the action.
Lake only leads by 2 points among male voters, 8 points among men 50 and older, 4 points among whites, 7 points among whites 50 and older and 6 points with those who didn’t graduate college.
The Trump coalition isn’t sold on her, and this reflects in depressed numbers compared with Trump among Republicans, independents and older swing voters.
Whereas Trump carries 92% of GOP registrants, 47% of independents and 45% of swing voters over 50 (Harris is at 36% with the same subset), Lake pulls 85% of Republicans, 38% of independents and just 24% of swing voters over 50.
Gallego leads her by 17 points with indys and 30 points with older swing voters.
A second survey released this week shows Trump building a strong firewall with Latino men under 50 — a group key to Harris’ apparently dwindling hopes.
The USA Today/Suffolk University poll shows the former president up by 12 point with voters under the age of 35 (51% to 39%) and 20 points (57% to 37%) among Hispanic men between 35 and 49 years old.
It found a similar situation in Nevada, also part of its two-state sample, with Trump up 53% to 40% with Latino males under 35 and 53% to 39% with those between 35 and 49 years of age.
