JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is warning that a recession remains a real possibility as financial markets continue to absorb the ripple effects of the Trump administration’s sweeping tariff policies.
“Hopefully we’ll avoid it, but I wouldn’t take it off the table at this point,” Dimon told Bloomberg Television on Thursday during JPMorgan’s Global Markets Conference in Paris.
“If there is a recession, I don’t know how big it would be or how long it would last.”
Dimon’s comments come amid ongoing uncertainty sparked by President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement of tariffs on dozens of countries, followed days later by a 90-day pause to pursue trade agreements.
The back-and-forth has jolted markets, and Dimon said some JPMorgan clients are already putting investment plans on hold due to the volatility.
“The right thing to do is to back off of some of that stuff,” Dimon said of the trade war, adding that he hopes the recent cooling of tensions between the US and China leads to productive negotiations.
“To have an engaging conversation.”
Dimon has been vocal about the need for a stable trade framework and has urged the Trump administration to empower Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to lead talks with foreign governments.
In his recent shareholder letter, he pressed for a swift resolution, warning that prolonged uncertainty would dampen economic growth.
Despite the turmoil, Dimon noted that JPMorgan has benefited from recent market swings.
“You’ve seen examples where there’s good volatility and there’s bad volatility,” he said. “This one happened to be good. The next go around it may not be so good.”
JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest lender with nearly $4 trillion in assets under management, generated record revenue in the first quarter, and analysts anticipate another strong showing in the second quarter — even before the full impact of the April tariffs takes hold.
But Dimon also cautioned that global sentiment toward the US may be fraying.
“We irritate a lot of people,” he said, pointing to anecdotal backlash. “I run into them, they say you know, they’re not buying our Kentucky bourbon.”
Still, he remains bullish on America’s long-term prospects.
“Is America a bad investment destination? No,” Dimon said. “If you were to take all your money and put it in one country it would still be America.”
Elsewhere in the interview, Dimon sounded a note of optimism on European stability, saying the EU and UK “have a chance to actually develop a great relationship, partially making up for the disaster that Brexit became.”
While Dimon emphasized resilience, billionaire investor and Mets owner Steve Cohen offered a slightly more cautious outlook, estimating the chance of a US recession at 45%.
“We aren’t in a recession yet, but we have significant slowing growth,” Cohen, founder of the hedge fund Point72 Asset Management, said during the Sohn Investment Conference in New York on Wednesday.
Cohen predicted that US GDP could slow to 1.5% or lower next year and said the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in the near term because “they are going to be worried about inflation from tariffs.”
He also remarked on the stock market’s swift April reversal.
“I want to see how the market is going to react [to upcoming economic data], and that will tell me a lot about whether we are priced correctly,” he said.
Even if the market slides, Cohen said a 10% to 15% decline “isn’t a calamity” and predicted equities could trade sideways for an extended period.
“Markets don’t have to go up every year,” he added.
Point72 posted a 2.3% gain in April, pushing its year-to-date return to 3%, Bloomberg previously reported.
