Jewish support for the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee is on track to be the lowest since the Ronald Reagan era — while the number of those backing Donald Trump is on the rise, according to a new poll from the Manhattan Institute.
If the election were held today, Kamala Harris would win the support of just 67% of Jewish voters, while former President Trump would take 31% of Jewish votes, the survey found. More than four out of five described themselves as “enthusiastic” about their choice.
Though Jewish voters on the whole remain overwhelmingly supportive of Democrats, that support has dipped noticeably over the years.
In 1992, 80% of Jewish voters supported Bill Clinton over George Bush Sr., though things have been trending slowly downward since. In 2020, Biden won the support of 68% of Jewish voters, while Trump had 30%. In 2016 Hillary Clinton won 71% of Jewish voters and Trump got 24%.
The poll follows others which show Jewish support for Democrats is cracking — a trend which has accelerated since Oct. 7 terrorist attacks on Israel by Hamas.
While Jews tended to favor Democrats on most issues, there was strong partisan agreement on Israel, with 86% saying they supported the Jewish state — and 62% of Jews saying they were concerned about antisemitism in the Democratic party.
“Security, Israel, and antisemitism” are Harris’s weakest issue relative to former President Donald Trump among Jewish voters, according to the poll.
Many are likely uncomfortable with the Democratic Party’s tolerance of voices that criticize Israel in extreme terms, such as labeling the country ‘genocidal,’” said Jesse Arm, Chief of Staff at the Manhattan Institute in an analysis of the findings.
“This is evidenced by the fact that Jews are almost universally supportive of Israel — a mere 5% of Jewish voters say they are not supporters of the Jewish state,” Arm added.
Harris’ remaining strength among Jews came from Reform and unaffiliated or nondenominational Jews who are historically more aligned to progressive causes than other Jews.
A third of Jews cited abortion as their biggest 2024 campaign issue in contrast to Americans at large who routinely cite the economy.
The poll was conducted between Oct. 5-9 and surveyed 658 Jewish voters across the United States.
