Embattled Democratic Virginia Attorney General hopeful Jay Jones — who was caught sending text messages fantasizing about murdering a political rival — holds a narrow lead over the Republican incumbent, according to a shocking new poll released on election eve.
Jones, who was welcomed at a Saturday Barack Obama rally for Virginia Democrats, has a two-percentage point lead (49%-47%) over commonwealth AG Jason Miyares, according to a survey of likely voters by Insider Advantage, a Georgia-based firm.
The Insider Advantage poll matches a survey conducted by Emerson College and released Sunday, which showed Jones also leading by two percentage points among likely voters or those who have already cast ballots.
The surveys indicate that Jones may ride into office on the coattails of his fellow Democrats atop the ticket after bombshell text messages emerged last month in which he fantasized about murdering then-Republican state House Speaker Todd Gilbert.
“Three people, two bullets,” read one text from Jones to Republican delegate Carrie Coyner. “Gilbert, hitler, and pol pot [sic].”
“Gilbert gets two bullets to the head,” Jones wrote, adding, “Spoiler: put Gilbert in the crew with the two worst people you know and he receives both bullets every time.”
Later, he called Coyner and mused about Gilbert’s children — whom Jones labeled “little fascists” in the text thread — dying in the arms of their mother, so that Gilbert might change his political positions.
Jones later apologized and top commonwealth Democrats, including Sens. Tim Kaine and Mark Warner as well as gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger, refused to call on him to quit the race despite demands from Republicans.
“Trump has endorsed Jason,” Jones sniped at Saturday’s rally. “He said ‘Jason will never let us down,’ and what that means is that he’ll never let Donald Trump down.”
Meanwhile, the InsiderAdvantage poll found Spanberger leading Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by 10 percentage points (50%-40%). The remaining 5% said they would endorse independent Donna Charles — who dropped out and endorsed Spanberger last month — and 5% said they were undecided.
Spanberger leads Earle-Sears by 9.6 percentage points in the latest RealClearPolitics average of polls after the Emerson College survey showed her on top of the Republican by 11 percentage points, 55%-44%.
“We are catching the steep decline of support for Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. Part of this decline is connected with the bounce Attorney General candidate Jay Jones has seen,” InsiderAdvantage Pollster Matt Towery explained.
“He has managed to survive brutal texts from his past to be slightly ahead again in that race. So the boost Earle-Sears was receiving when the text scandal first broke, fell apart.”
The Insider Advantage survey polled 800 likely Virginia voters Nov. 2-3 and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.46 percentage points.
The Emerson College poll surveyed 880 Virginians who were very likely to vote or had already voted Oct. 30-31 and has a margin of plus-or-minus 3.2 percentage points.
