Japan will face its first stiff test in its quest for a fourth World Baseball Classic championship Saturday night.
After sweeping through Pool C with a 4-0 record, Japan will take on Venezuela in the quarterfinals.
Shohei Ohtani and Samurai Japan are the favorites to advance, but these odds are tighter than expected at -162 odds for the chalk and +134 for the South American underdogs.
Can Venezuela end Japan’s bid for a repeat with the upset Saturday evening?
Japan vs. Venezuela odds, prediction
At first glance, it looks like Japan has continued its dominance at the World Baseball Classic.
Samurai Japan has won 11 WBC games on the spin, going back to 2023, making it seem like they have mastered this format.
Perhaps that’s true, but there are some red flags hidden beneath Japan’s 4-0 record this year.
The Japanese were heavy favorites to run through Pool C, which also featured Chinese Taipei, Australia, Korea, and Czechia, but they had some nervy moments.
They dominated Chinese Taipei with a 13-0 mercy-rule victory in the opener, but they had to win from behind against Korea and Australia before pulling away, 8-6 and 4-3, respectively.
A win is a win, and no team is going to be flawless in four games of international baseball, but it does give some pause, considering that Japan will now face a step up in competition against Venezuela.
Venezuela played second fiddle to the Dominican Republic in Pool D, but this team is as dangerous as any in this field.
The Venezuelan lineup is loaded with headliners like Ronald Acuña Jr., Eugenio Suárez, Maikel Garcia and the red-hot Luis Arraez, and they’ll likely have a terrific starter on the bump in Ranger Suarez.
The newly-minted Boston Red Sox hurler will be the B-side against probable Japanese starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he’s more than capable of quelling Japan’s lineup.
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The biggest advantage for the Venezuelans could come on defense.
Japan has struggled to find the right mix in the outfield, with Seiya Suzuki and Masataka Yoshida being forced into uncomfortable situations. It hasn’t bitten the defending champions just yet, but against better teams they will pay for the mistakes they’re making in the field.
The tale of the tape will favor Japan in this matchup, but the gap between these two teams really isn’t that wide. And when you factor in travel for the favorites, and a home-field advantage for the Venezuelans, you can see a path to an upset for La Vintotino.
The Play: Venezuela (+134, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
