WASHINGTON — The US pause in military aid to Ukraine and sharing intelligence with the war-torn country has led Russian forces to step up missile strikes to an intensity rarely seen since the February 2022 invasion, hastening Kyiv’s retreat from Moscow’s Kursk region and damaging hope of leverage in potential cease-fire talks.
Moscow has launched more than 80 missiles at Ukraine since Wednesday’s intelligence-sharing pause — after relying almost solely on artillery and drone strikes for at least a week prior — and more than 1,550 attack drones since the aid pause on March 3.
During the same period, Ukraine’s forces have increasingly lost territory in Kursk, and a Ukrainian commander told The Post last week that Kyiv’s forces would be back in Ukrainian territory by March 19.
While Ukraine’s Kursk operation has been struggling since January, the Trump administration’s pullbacks since the contentious meeting between President Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky on Feb. 28 have heavily hindered its ability to continue their fight to keep the Russian territory for possible negotiations with Moscow, according to analyses by the Washington-based Foundation for Defending Democracy and Institute for the Study of War.
“My sense is that these pressures were building,” said FDD’s Russia Program director John Hardie. “I don’t think [the pause on intelligence sharing] was necessarily the trigger, but I have heard some troops there in Kursk say that that’s been a challenge cut off of intelligence.”
Since the pauses began, Ukraine has not struck Russian forces in Ukraine with HIMARS rockets, which have served as an important deterrent to Moscow’s advances since the US first offered them to Kyiv roughly two years ago.
That is likely due to two reasons, both tied to the recent US policy changes, ISW’s Russia team lead George Barros told The Post on Monday.
For one, Kyiv may be saving its current supplies of HIMARS munitions for blocking Russian advances into Ukrainian territory — which is more critically important to maintaining its sovereignty — without the promise of additional aid, he said.
“If the Ukrainians only have say, X-number of HIMARS [munitions] left, and they’re saving them because they’re not going to get any more they might have to make a hard choice between do they use them now to try to help the Ukrainians in Kursk to a fighting withdrawal, or save them for more important things?” Barros said.
And when the US halted sharing intelligence with Ukraine on Wednesday, Kyiv lost significant ability to target Moscow’s forces in Russian territory — making it nearly impossible to strike the enemy in Kursk with HIMARS even if they wanted to, both Hardie and Barros said.
“In terms of things like divining Russian plans, or certainly strikes on Russian command and control and other high-value targets, that’s something that the US has been helpful with in the past, and so not having that, of course, is not exactly optimal for the Ukrainians,” Hardie said.
That’s a significant loss, as HIMARS were particularly helpful at the beginning of the Kursk operation in August when Ukraine shocked the world by advancing into Russian territory for the first time, Barros said.
“When the Russians mounted their initial counter-attacks, the Ukrainians used HIMARS in order to defend their positions and continue the momentum, and we’ve not seen any such strikes since the intel cut in Kursk,” Barros said.
When National Security Adviser Mike Waltz announced the decision to stop sharing intelligence, he mentioned not enabling offensive attacks or attacks in Russia, which Barros said “could be interpreted as ‘we’re not going to be providing you targeting information for fire munitions at Kursk.’”
While Waltz’s move contributed to Ukraine’s halted advance into Russia, Kyiv was already nearing its end in Kursk, according to the experts — and the lack of intelligence now hurts Ukrainian forces’ ability to retreat gracefully without high losses.
“With the absence of the HIMARS, they went in with them and our support, but they’re pulling out now without them and our support,” Barros said. “And so even if the Ukrainians decided they’re going to withdraw their forces, it would be great if they could have had some support from HIMARS to be able to cover them as they retreat, potentially keep larger Russian forces at bay and that sort of thing.”
And while the US decision may have helped the intended goal of stopping at least some fighting in the war, it has also caused Ukraine to lose leverage in potential negotiations with Russia for a cease-fire — something President Trump has repeatedly called for in recent weeks.
Such leverage would have been helpful in bringing about a peaceful resolution to the war, Barros said, because “the Russians are the obstacles to the peace deal this stage” after Ukraine offered an air and sea cease-fire ahead of talks with a Washington delegation in Riyadh this week.
“The Russians are demanding that Ukraine not be a sovereign country and that there not be peacekeepers, so there’s a requirement here in that there, we actually have to get the Russians to back down on some of their their demands,” he said.
“Cutting the intelligence and military support and the removal of the Kursk salient, that’s going to decrease American leverage with Russia for the future tough negotiations that we’re going to need with the Russians to try to get to an acceptable version of peace,” Barros continued.
“Pressuring the Ukrainians, cutting their aid, cutting their intel sharing, it actually sort of hurts President Trump’s objectives, because it only gets rid of the leverage that the president will need in the future talks.”
