Parity and new faces are what make the NFL the biggest sport in America.
In every season since 1990, we’ve seen at least four new teams in the playoffs compared to the season prior
In 2024, the new postseason qualifiers were the Broncos, Chargers, Commanders and Vikings.
While it seems obvious that teams like the Lions will make the postseason this year, perhaps it is wise to tread lightly when penciling the league’s best teams into the postseason.
After all, the 49ers were in the -420 range to make the playoffs before the 2024 season even began and injuries took a toll on the reigning NFC champions.
Thirty-five years in a row with at least four new teams making the playoffs should at the minimum keep your guard up high regarding the favorites in each conference.
If we assume that this trend holds, four of these teams must make the playoffs.
AFC: Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets, New England Patriots, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans.
NFC: Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals, Dallas Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons, San Francisco 49ers, New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks.
Cross ’em off
There are fewer options here than you’d think.
Browns: They play in one of the harshest divisions in football (AFC North) and have Joe Flacco as the starting quarterback. That’s an easy pass for me. It looks like a zoo in Cleveland, and it’s safe to say that they won’t be heard from come January.
Saints: Over in the Big Easy, they are starting Spencer Rattler over Tyler Shough under center. That’s quite the indictment of Shough, a second-round pick who couldn’t beat out a second-year player drafted in the fifth round. New Orleans is another team that could be picking at the top of the draft next spring.
Unlikely but possible
Giants: Improved team but schedule is a nightmare, plus NFC East is loaded.
Cowboys: Micah Parsons traded to Green Bay. Dak Prescott’s mobility deteriorated. NFC East has two conference favorites.
Seahawks: Not a big Sam Darnold guy, Kenneth Walker III is always injured and the No. 30 offensive line via Pro Football Focus.
Colts: Daniel Jones … enough said.
Jaguars: I’m much more bullish on Jacksonville than most, especially in a bad division. Just haven’t seen enough from Trevor Lawrence consistently to think he can legitimately lead them without an elite defense.
Raiders: Not a Geno Smith guy even with the continuity he has with Pete Carroll. They are the fourth-best team in the AFC West.
Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa is constantly injured, and Tyreek Hill is a year older. Mike McDaniel is the favorite to be the first coach fired in the NFL. I like a different team in the AFC East.
Jets: It’s a new-look Jets team, but I still can’t get behind them. Justin Fields hasn’t proved able to win games so far in his NFL career, and I don’t think that starts now.
Titans: Rookie QB in Cam Ward, rebuilding roster, second-lowest graded defense in the league. Pass.
I just don’t believe in you
Cardinals: Kyler Murray is a high-floor, low-ceiling guy who needs a perfect team around him to make a playoff run.
Panthers: Bryce Young looked much improved to end the season, but Carolina has the lowest-graded defense in the league per PFF.
Falcons: This one’s tough. Good offense, but new quarterback (Michael Penix Jr.) that I can’t get behind. They were my fifth team, but I just can’t do it.
Betting on the NFL?
The picks
49ers (-180, BetRivers): Loaded on both sides of the ball with Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Fred Warner, and they finally look healthy. NFC West is wide open.
Patriots (+160, Fanatics): Drake Maye looked electric last season, Mike Vrabel is coaching, and Stefon Diggs is in the fold. Division is easy beyond Bills, as well.
Bears (+165, BetMGM): Ben Johnson in charge, offensive line dramatically improved. Serious improvements here.
Bengals (-141, BetRivers): Ownership is a joke, but Cincinnati can outscore anyone and has top-five QB in Joe Burrow.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
