WASHINGTON — House Republicans are urging their Senate colleagues to swiftly pass President Trump’s “big beautiful bill” — which recent polling suggests is popular in key congressional districts — to avoid losing the chamber to Democrats who could use a new majority to start impeachment probes.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told The Post in a phone interview Friday that Republicans got “caught flat-footed” when the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) passed in December 2017 and the GOP took a drubbing in the midterms the following year, handing Democrats a 41-seat House advantage.
“We want to ensure that people can feel the effects of it well in advance of the midterm elections,” Johnson said.
“That’s one of our great regrets about the TCJA is we waited too long. We believe this bill is going to provide real relief for real Americans everywhere — and the sooner we do it, the better.”
Historical headwinds are strongly against House Republicans heading into next year. In nearly every midterm election since 1938, the party in power has lost seats — with two exceptions: 1998 and 2002.
But Johnson and other GOP leaders have been trying to stay optimistic about the GOP’s odds of defying history.
High stakes
The stakes are high for Republicans, especially Trump, even as some GOP senators have doubted the bill has enough votes to pass the upper chamber in its current form.
A National Republican campaign operative focused on the 2026 elections warned Tuesday Democrats are “going to do everything in their power to impeach President Trump” if they win back even partial control of Congress.
Even Dems in toss-up races, like Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, have signaled openness to impeachment based on Trump “selling access” to people purchasing his name-branded cryptocurrency.
Johnson already stared down an impeachment threat this Congress after Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.) tried to force a vote this month on articles alleging abuse of trade powers, bribery and corruption, obstruction of justice and tyranny.
“While Democrats are throwing fits, impeding law enforcement, playing political games, and demonstrating how far out of touch they are — Republicans are working to deliver lower taxes for families, restore American energy dominance, strengthen border security, restore peace through strength, and make government work more efficiently and effectively,” the speaker said in a statement at the time. “The contrast has never been more clear.”
Thanedar backed down at the last minute following objections from some members of his own party — but other Democrats like Rep. Al Green (R-Texas) have hinted at following through in the future, accusing Trump of being “an authoritarian president.”
“House Democrats have already provided just a small preview of what a Democratic majority would bring: distractions, division, and nonstop Trump Derangement Syndrome,” said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella.
Trump was impeached and acquitted twice during his first term and has been keen on avoiding a repeat of that fate.
Beyond the specter of impeachment, House Democrats would take over powerful committees with subpoena powers and other investigative tools and launch a blitz of inquiries into Trump and his allies.
Topics could range from Trump’s crackdown on law firms and universities, to his meme-coin venture and the “flying palace” super jet worth an estimated $400 million his administration recently received from Qatar.
Legislative success
The House passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, 215-214, early Thursday to make Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent; end taxes on qualified tips, overtime pay and car loan interest payments as well as boost border and defense spending; enact Medicaid reforms; and claw back money from unused green-energy tax credits.
Its passage had been in doubt up until hours before the vote due to last-minute objections from conservatives in the House Freedom Caucus, who wanted work requirements for Medicaid imposed sooner than 2029. They successfully got the timeline bumped up to the end of 2026.
Fiscal hawks also wanted hundreds of billions of dollars in solar, wind and other renewable energy tax incentives from President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act to be stripped if not implemented by the end of 2028 — or if it has not produced at least a 5% return on investment within 60 days of the bill’s enactment.
Blue-state Republicans further touted a $40,000 state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap for individuals filing with the IRS.
“The ultimate package is one that really does appeal to hardworking Americans because it addresses their needs, it addresses real tax benefits and tax savings, the cuts that will help everybody,” Johnson said. “The challenge is the process of building that consensus step by step is very time consuming — and very laborious.”
“It’s another reason why we had to start this a year in advance,” he added, noting that getting it to Trump’s desk by July 4 would “be great for the party, but bigger than that, great for the country, and it will also avoid these calamities that would follow us if we don’t get this job done.”
The GOP-aligned polling firm Fabrizio Lee issued an internal memo Saturday showing up to 72% of registered voters in key congressional districts supported “requiring able-bodied, working-age adults who receive Medicaid to at least look for work or participate in community service part-time.”
Another 63% also preferred “ending the federal income tax on tips,” 61% liked extending the 2017 tax cuts for individuals and 59% favored “ending federal income tax on overtime pay,” the poll found.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and others have ripped the tax bill as a “scam” that would disproportionately benefit the ultra-wealthy, but GOP campaign staff believe the early polling is a good sign for their party in the midterms.
“The polls are clear that voters overwhelmingly support the Republican agenda, and that’s exactly why Democrats will be rejected again in 2026,” Marinella said.
Game plan for victory
In tandem with the efforts to achieve legislative and policy successes, Trump and his allies are hoping smart politics can prevent a midterm loss.
That means emphasizing quality candidates, avoiding messy primaries and fundraising aggressively.
Candidate quality had been widely seen by GOP brass as one of the biggest reasons for the party’s disappointing 2022 midterm performance.
Republicans took steps to rectify that issue in 2024 and are hoping to repeat that by discouraging retirements and recruiting more viable candidates. Additionally, Trump has begun endorsing Republicans months in advance of potential primaries in order to avoid messy infighting.
The president came out early in support of New York Rep. Mike Lawler’s re-election bid, potentially clearing the field for Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) to make a run for governor. Lawler has also teased a possible run.
Lastly, Trump, his allies and Republicans have been working to boost their war chest to help fortify embattled candidates with ample cash, with super PACs such as MAGA Inc. and Securing American Greatness expected to play a big role in the midterm skirmish.
National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson (R-NC) has signaled his intention of going on offense, with more than two dozen seats on the official House GOP campaign arm’s target list.
There are 13 House Democrats running in districts that Trump won, but only three Republicans in districts that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in the 2024 cycle.
