The economic proposals of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are projected to add $7.5 trillion and $3.5 trillion to the national debt, respectively, according to a new nonpartisan analysis.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) on Monday released the total costs of the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates’ economic plans over the next 10 years, while acknowledging the difficulty of a precise estimate due to “a high degree of uncertainty” about the details.
To account for that, the analysis includes a low-cost and high-cost projection for each, with Harris’ plans adding between $0 and $8.1 trillion to the national debt and Trump’s adding between $1.5 trillion and $15.2 trillion.
The estimates also don’t take into account changes in GDP that will occur, though some provisions incorporate the dynamic effects on the economy of some policies, such as tax cuts and tariffs.
Brian Riedl, a senior economic fellow at the Manhattan Institute, noted to The Post that the estimates were based off of the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) $22 trillion baseline deficit for the next 10 years and that Congress “typically enacts the expansions but not the savings offsets, raising net costs further.”
The highest cost proposals for both candidates would result from extending provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which reduced individual rates and slashed the corporate rate to 21% from 35%, included a $2,000 Child Tax Credit and doubled the estate tax exemption to $11.1 million for individuals and $22.8 for married couples.
Trump, 78, wants to make the tax cuts permanent, which CRFB estimates would increase deficits by roughly $5.35 trillion over the next decade, though that figure could be almost a trillion dollars lower when accounting for faster economic growth.
Exempting both overtime income and service industry workers’ tips would add another $2.3 trillion to the national debt.
Another $1.3 trillion would be added to the deficit if the former president ended taxation on Social Security benefits for seniors.
Trump also wants to eliminate the $10,000 State and Local Taxes (SALT) deduction cap, which would decrease federal tax revenue while being a boon to blue state residents with higher rates.
Meanwhile, the Republican candidate’s universal baseline tariff of 10% on imported goods would increase tax revenues by $2.7 trillion.
Another trillion would flow into federal coffers if Trump follows through on expanding domestic natural gas production, ending renewable energy tax credits, eliminating the Department of Education and establishing a government efficiency commission, first proposed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, to trim waste, fraud and abuse of taxpayers’ money.
GOP vice presidential nominee and Ohio Sen. JD Vance has backed an even higher $5,000 Child Tax Credit — but that was not included in the CRFB analysis.
Harris, 59, has pledged to extend the 2017 tax cuts for all earners with annual income beneath $400,000 and expand the Child Tax Credit to $6,000 for parents of newborns, $3,600 for parents of children under 6 years old, and $3,000 for parents of children over six years old.
She would also reintroduce the Earned Income Tax Credit from the 2021 American Rescue Plan and apply it to low- to moderate-income earners
In total, those Harris proposals would add $4.4 trillion to the deficit.
The national debt would accrue another $1 trillion if her health care subsidies and $25,000 first-time homebuyer tax credits are implemented as well.
At least $700 billion more would come out of the vice president’s expanded pre-K and child care handouts, $200 billion would be piled on for eliminating taxes on tips and raising the minimum wage and $150 billion would result from an up to $50,000 subsidy for first-time, small-business owners.
But $4.25 trillion in revenue would result from Harris’ increases to the capital gains and corporate tax rates to 28%, among other tax hikes.
The Democrat would also generate $250 billion in revenue by lowering prescription drug costs, according to CRFB.
The organization warned in its analysis that the US is on track to break the all-time record for the national debt’s share of GDP, which was previously set at 106% in 1946.
The federal deficit is currently 99% of GDP and sits at $35 trillion. It would surpass the 1946 mark in three years.
