The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 2 slate.
New England Patriots (+1) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
These look like two pretty bad squads matching up on Sunday. The Miami Dolphins play host to Drake Maye, the Patriots, and Mike McDaniel’s group looked non-competitive last week. New England was very leaky against the pass, allowing 9.8 yards per pass attempt (second worst), but they crushed Ashton Jeanty and the run game. I suspect the Dolphins struggle against the Patriots if they can’t run the ball much.
NEW YORK JETS (+6.5) over Buffalo Bills
What would the world look like if there were one fewer fumble in each game? The Bills lose, the Jets beat the Steelers, and we live in a way different world. The Jets’ defense struggled last week, but it can’t get much worse than four touchdowns allowed to Aaron Rodgers, right? The Jets run the ball to keep this close, with a chance to win late.
New York Giants (+6) over DALLAS COWBOYS
My projected score for this game is dead on the spread, 25.28 to 19.28 in favor of the Cowboys. The line just keeps moving in favor of the Cowboys, but the Giants have so much urgency to win this game, I’ll take them, but I’m not happy about it.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Bengals had no business winning last week, and they won’t do it again this week. Cincinnati’s defense is still every bit as terrible, and I think this weekend’s game could be another strong spot for the opposition to put up some gaudy stats. Had the Browns not dropped multiple passes into the Bengals’ defense’s hands, Cincinnati would be 0-1.
Cleveland Browns (+11.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS
Speaking of the Browns, Joe Flacco is still good, and he returns to Baltimore. Last year, the Browns defeated the Ravens in October, and perhaps most interesting is that Cleveland’s defense played very well in a Week 1 game that they should have won. The Browns allowed just two yards per rush attempt, the lowest in the NFL last week,k and the offense in Baltimore is centered around the run game.
TENNESSEE TITANS (+5.5) over Los Angeles Rams
Very quietly, the Tennessee Titans allowed the fewest yards per play in the NFL last week. The Titans’ rookie quarterback Cam Ward looked terrible, to be clear, but the Rams couldn’t beat a depleted 49ers team that is now three-point favorites over the Saints? No way. Titans keep it close.
Chicago Bears (+6) over DETROIT LIONS
No one knows the Lions better than Ole’ Ben Johnson. Hidden in what was a mess of a second half was Caleb Williams actually playing well in the first half. Meanwhile, the Lions did nothing well last year against the behemoth Green Bay Packers. Don’t fool yourselves here. I’ll take Williams over Jared Goff every day of the week and twice on (this) Sunday.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) over Seattle Seahawks
The Jets’ strong pass blocking severely bottled up Pittsburgh’s defense. They will not face a similar test this weekend. The Seahawks’ offensive line came into the year as the No. 30-ranked group in the NFL, and last week didn’t do much to curb that negativity. Aaron Rodgers is 2-0, go figure,
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (-3) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Injuries certainly piled up, but this feels like too much of a correction. Sportsbooks view the downgrade of Brock Purdy and Mac Jones as a four-point switch-up. Call me crazy, but I don’t view it that way. Jones, a former first-round pick, is a fine backup, while the Saints, even at home, still have the worst end of this quarterback matchup.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5) over Carolina Panthers
The Arizona Cardinals are a much better team when they can run the ball. Over the past two years, in games that they won, the Cardinals averaged 160 team rushing yards in games that they won last season. Widen the sample size a bit, and the Cardinals win 61 percent of their games where they run for at least 142 yards over the last two seasons.
The Panthers allowed 6.3 rush yards to the hapless Jaguars last week (fourth most last week) and were a run funnel last season, where they allowed 5.2 yards per carry (worst in the NFL).
Denver Broncos (-1.5) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Fool me once, shame on you. Daniel Jones will not fool me twice. The Denver Broncos’ defense is a wagon and should be good enough to carry them here. The Broncos allowed 2.4 yards per play last week to the Titans, who started a rookie quarterback. Jones played well last week, but the Dolphins are a walking corpse.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Let’s just call it what it is: the Chiefs aren’t good. Expected to be without Xavier Worthy, the Chiefs will run an offense that is missing their top two receivers, as Rashee Rice is suspended. Now they run an offense that is far more reliant on Travis Kelce than they should be. 0-2 in Kansas City, they’ll get right against the Giants in Week 3.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3.5) over Atlanta Falcons
Brian Flores’ defense against a second-year quarterback that I have a lot of questions about. In primetime no less. It’s a bad spot for the Falcons and Michael Penix, who really should have won last week. JJ McCarthy figured it out in the second half last week, and he should be riding high against Atlanta in Minnesota.
Monday
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS
The Texans will need to make this one ugly, and even if they do, I’m not so sure they cover. My model actually has the Buccaneers as the best bet on the board, with my projected score being 23.26 to 22.94 in favor of the Buccaneers.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) over LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Justin Herbert appears to be an MVP candidate and has always shown talent. Meanwhile, the Raiders were fortunate to win over the Patriots. Nothing lucky about Los Angeles. The Chargers win easily.
LAST WEEK: 5-8
Last season: 119-138-3.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
