he Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 2 slate.
Sunday
Browns (+3) vs. JAGUARS
Jacksonville will actually be very friendly to Deshaun Watson, as the Jaguars fans are all largely Clemson fans.
Trevor Lawrence has benefitted from this, but they also just lost to Miami, who looked horrific against Buffalo on Thursday.
This line seems inflated because of how bad Watson looked in Week 1.
This one should be a pick ’em at worst. Back the Browns defense. They win outright.
Saints (+6) vs. COWBOYS
Two teams that looked fantastic in Week 1: New Orleans took Carolina to the woodshed, and Dallas put Watson one step closer to the unemployment line.
We don’t love Dennis Allen, but we equally don’t like Dallas as six-point favorites.
Dallas graded out as the sixth-worst run defense, according to Pro Football Focus, and faces a top offensive line in the league.
New Orleans wins outright.
RAVENS (-8.5) vs. Raiders
Coaching mismatch mixed with an elite––and-angry Ravens squad that had plenty to say after their loss to Kansas City.
Baltimore has clear advantages at offensive line, quarterback and all weapons.
Neither defense is elite, but Las Vegas is missing its best player in Tyree Wilson.
The Raiders gave up 176 yards of rushing last week alone.
Giants (+2) vs. COMMANDERS
If Daniel Jones were going to put up gaudy numbers any week of the season, it would be against the Commanders, who just made Baker Mayfield look like Johnny Unitas.
Jones is 5-1-1 in his career versus Washington, averaging 215.7 yards passing with 10 passing touchdowns and three interceptions.
He’s comfortable at Washington, much more than we can say for New Jersey.
Jets (-3.5) vs. TITANS
Will Levis against Aaron Rodgers, and you get the better defense on a four-point spread?
The Jets are going to get better on offense as the season goes on, perhaps starting with Rodgers being comfortable at his mansion in Nashville.
Levis was the third-worst quarterback in Week 1, according to PFF.
This is an overreaction spot — the Jets lost to a Super Bowl team in Week 1 on the road. The Titans couldn’t be further from that.
Chargers (-5) vs. PANTHERS
This line was initially Chargers -7, but sharp bettors have taken this down to five.
If it were still at seven, I’d be on Carolina.
But it’s impossible to bet on the Panthers in this spot with the Chargers, who are hellbent on taking the run game away.
Jim Harbaugh’s group ranked as the second-best run defense last week, according to PFF.
Bryce Young with no run game is a death sentence.
Harbaugh is too good of a coach to lose against Carolina.
49ers (-5) vs. VIKINGS
The Giants successfully made Sam Darnold look like the quarterback he was promised to be out of USC.
San Francisco is a whole other animal.
Even looking impressive as they did against the Giants, Minnesota still grades out as the fourth-worst offensive line.
Assuming Nick Bosa plays as expected, the 49ers will roll.
The Vikings gave up the seventh-most pressures last week (13).
Seahawks (-3.5) vs. PATRIOTS
It’s hard to hate on Jacoby Brissett, who is among the NFL’s best backup quarterbacks.
The difference between him and Geno Smith is not dramatic.
What you have to factor into this handicap is the Bengals’ total unwillingness to run the ball last week.
Don’t expect Seattle to do that, as they pounded the ball 23 times, the third-most in Week 1.
New England allowed the sixth-most yards per carry last week (6.1).
Zach Charbonnet or Kenneth Walker at running back is no concern.
Colts (-3) vs. PACKERS
Malik Willis looks like he will start for Green Bay.
This is where Matt LaFleur will realize that free agent Ryan Tannehill should be the quarterback while Jordan Love is out with an injury.
Willis is among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL and should be rolled this weekend.
The spread moved six points between Love and Willis — that’s fair.
Take Indianapolis to run their way to victory as the clear best run-blocking unit in the NFL, according to PFF.
Buccaneers (+7.5) vs. LIONS
Detroit was bailed out by a few bad red-zone possessions by the Rams on “Sunday Night Football.”
The Lions should’ve lost in Week 1 and are liable to lose in Week 2 against a solid Buccaneers squad.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin should rip through a bad Lions secondary that allowed a 75-percent catch rate on passes, the fourth-worst rate in the league.
Rams (+1.5) vs. CARDINALS
This line should really be flipped even without Puka Nacua in the starting lineup.
Los Angeles didn’t lose the game on Sunday in overtime, they lost because of offensive line injuries going into Week 1.
Rob Havenstein should return in Week 2 along with two other starters, giving the Rams a big boost this week.
Rams win this one easily against a poor Cardinals defense.
CHIEFS (-6) vs. Bengals
No Tee Higgins and Joe Burrow don’t look healthy — yikes.
In years past, the Bengals were able to ride their defense and Joe Mixon while Burrow made key plays.
The defense is a shell of itself, and Mixon is making noise in Houston.
Disaster is on the horizon in Cincinnati as key stars begin pointing fingers.
Steelers (-2.5) vs. BRONCOS
Mile High isn’t a fun place to play, but the Steelers are battle-tested enough to wager this weekend.
Bo Nix threw for 138 yards last week with two interceptions against Seattle.
Here’s your stat of the day: Mike Tomlin is 24-6 against rookie quarterbacks since 2007.
Nix gets nixed by Pittsburgh on Sunday.
TEXANS (-6.5) vs. Bears
Chicago is actually getting respect here after they easily should’ve lost to the Titans if Levis doesn’t make some of the worst throws in NFL history.
Houston is among the league’s better teams, and though the Bears defense looked improved, it’s hard to tell if that was just Levis being bad.
The Texans should win this one by more than a touchdown, especially if receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze don’t play.
Betting on the NFL?
Falcons (+7) vs. EAGLES
Talk about your overreactions. Atlanta didn’t look great in Week 1, but that doesn’t mean they should be this big of an underdog.
Look for the Falcons to get their weapons involved — Drake London and Bijan Robinson need more touches.
Atlanta’s run defense allowed just 3.5 yards per carry on 25 hand-offs against the Steelers.
They’ll slow down Saquon Barkley and could win outright on Monday night.
Last week: 5-9