Despite historical headwinds against the party in power, House Republicans believe they have “clear momentum” one year out from the 2026 midterm elections, thanks to Democrats’ pronounced weaknesses, according to a new memo first shared with The Post.
The official House GOP campaign arm has assessed that the political landscape is more favorable now than it was around this time in 2017, before the blue wave year — and feels that the dynamic “continues to improve” amid Democratic infighting and messaging struggles.
“Democrats have their weakest brand in decades, with 67% of Democrats saying they’re frustrated with their party, up from about half in Pew polls from 2021 and 2019,” a “one year out” memo from the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) explained.
“Voters define [Democrats] as higher taxes, weak leadership, a soft-on-crime stance, open borders, and wokeness. They are the party of the elite interests, out of touch with the working class.”
In all but two midterm elections since 1938, the party that controls the White House has lost seats in the House of Representatives. During the first Trump administration, Republicans lost 40 seats in the 2018 cycle, which became known as the blue wave, while Democrats lost 9 under former President Joe Biden in the 2022 election.
Yet this time around, Republicans are in a stronger polling position than they were a year out from the 2018 blue wave.
Democrats have a 3.6 percentage point edge over the GOP on the generic congressional ballot, according to the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls.
Eight years ago, Democrats had a nearly 9 percentage point edge over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, according to the same aggregate, the NRCC noted.
“The percentage of Americans who say Democrats are ‘out of touch’ has increased by double-digits over the last decade, with 70% indicating the party is disconnected from the issues that matter to voters,” the memo added.
The NRCC is further touting a fundraising advantage and its “strong incumbents in swing seats.”
During the first three quarters of 2017, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee outraised the NRCC by some $8.7 million. This time around, the NRCC is $723,000 ahead for the first three quarters of 2025.
“Compared to this point in 2017, the NRCC has raised roughly $20M more and holds about $7.5M more cash on hand,” the memo explained. “The DCCC is taking in less money and resources than it did in 2023, a clear sign of fading enthusiasm and a donor base that is depressed and disillusioned by its leadership.”
“Republican campaigns are building war chests, and Democrats are falling behind.”
The “NRCC Patriots,” a group of incumbent House Republicans the campaign sees as its most vulnerable, have also outraised the “DCCC Frontliners,” the House Democrats’ cohort of at-risk incumbents.
The memo, however, did not mention the mid-decade redistricting war ripping through the country and how it could affect the 2026 races.
The NRCC also stressed that Republicans still have work to do ahead of the midterm elections.
“If we continue to press our advantages, amplify our fundraising lead, highlight Patriot strength across battlegrounds, and drive the contrast between Republican deliverance and Democratic chaos, we will earn every vote next year,” the memo concluded.
