WASHINGTON — Likely voters in eight Republican-held toss-up House districts were more likely to blame Democrats than the GOP for the ongoing government shutdown, according to a new poll.
The McLaughlin and Associates poll commissioned by the conservative advocacy group Americans for a Balanced Budget found 39% of likely voters in the eight districts exclusively blamed Democrats for the shutdown, while 36% blamed Republicans and 23% pointed the finger at both parties.
Among undecided voters, Democrats still bore more of the blame than Republicans (20% to 12%), while 65% faulted both parties for the shutdown.
More than half (53%) of respondents said they wanted Democrats to vote to reopen the government so lawmakers could work on extending Obamacare tax credits set to expire at the end of this year.
Crucially, 55% of likely voters said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who wanted to let the tax credits expire.
“This poll makes it clear: Preserving the Enhanced Premium Tax Credits isn’t just good policy, it’s smart politics for Republicans looking to defend their majority in the 2026 midterms,” argued Dee Stewart, president of Americans for a Balanced Budget.
“Hardworking Americans are counting on Congress to prevent what would amount to a massive health care tax hike on millions of families. Extending these credits is about protecting working Americans and small business owners who pay their own way and keeping coverage affordable.”
GOP leaders have been adamant that any extension of the enhanced Obamacare subsidies, enacted under the Biden administration, should be done separately from the government shutdown fight.
A one-year extension would cost taxpayers $23.4 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Republicans have also insisted that any subsidy extension include reforms — with income requirements, limits on coverage for abortion and contraceptives, and a minimum out-of-pocket premium level among the ideas discussed internally.
The subsidies take the form of refundable tax credits, which means customers still get money back even if they don’t make enough money to pay income tax.
The Obamacare Premium Tax Credits are the largest refundable tax credit in the tax code, according to House Republicans.
Obamacare open enrollment is set to begin Nov. 1, a date that has quietly loomed over lawmakers amid the shutdown fight.
On Wednesday, the partial shutdown became the second-longest in US history at 22 days and counting.
The McLaughlin and Associates survey sampled 1,000 likely voters Oct. 15-19 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%.
The poll went out in Arizona’s 1st and 6th congressional districts, Colorado’s 8th District, Iowa’s 1st District, Michigan’s 7th District, Pennsylvania’s 7th and 10th districts, and Wisconsin’s 3rd District.
Those seats are held by Republican Reps. David Schweikert, Juan Ciscomani, Gabe Evans, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Tom Barrett, Ryan Mackenzie, Scott Perry and Derrick Van Orden, respectively.
Pollster John McLaughlin has worked on President Trump’s three campaigns and has drawn acclaim from the commander-in-chief.
