NEWPORT COAST, Calif. — California may be deep blue, but Republicans are betting that voters in the suburbs of sunny SoCal are fed-up with Democratic business-as-usual.
Scott Baugh, is running for an open seat that is squarely in purple Orange County, and Matt Gunderson, is challenging Democratic Rep. Mike Levin in a stretch of burbs that runs from Orange to San Diego counties.
They’re betting that running on issues like California’s rampant retail crime, inflation and the border will attract moderate voters.
The National Republican Congressional Committee branded both candidates “Young Guns” and plans to invest in their races. Both districts are listed as competitive by Cook Political Report, with Baugh’s race listed as “Lean Democrat” and Gunderson’s race listed as “Likely Democrat.”
“California is historically a land of opportunity, a land of dreams,” Baugh, a former state representative, told the Post in a sit-down interview before a fundraiser last week.
“Some of that’s been tarnished by the progressive left in this state. It’s still the most beautiful district in the entire country. It’s got the best weather in the entire country, and we are moving forward with reforms to make sure that we can flourish and enjoy prosperity here again.”
Gunderson’s strategy is to take one of Democrats’ biggest issues off the table. “I’m a pro-choice Republican. I believe abortion should be safe, legal, and rare,” he told The Post.
“So when we remove that topic off of the Democratic’s playbook, we can have a serious conversation about securing the border. We can have a serious conversation about addressing inflation and the cost of living,” he said.
“We can have a serious discussion about public safety, education, parents’ rights because we’re not all wrapped up in one issue that’s not gonna change in California anyway.”
Victories in these districts could help the Republicans hold and grow their majority in the US House — similar to how 2022 victories in bright blue New York secured the GOP’s control of the lower chamber.
Baugh is running against Democratic State Sen. Dave Min in the the 47th Congressional District seat left open by Rep. Katie Porter during her unsuccessful US Senate bid.
Baugh narrowly lost to Porter in 2022 by under 10,000 votes, but he believes this race is a different ball game, citing party registration numbers and fundraising being much closer than last time.
According to June 30 filings data, Baugh has $2.277 million cash on hand, and Min has $1.525 million cash on hand.
Gunderson, who founded three luxury car dealerships, is seeking to defeat Levin, a two-term congressman.
Issues like the border, the economy and crime are paramount in the California districts, much like other competitive races across the nation.
On border policy, they both expressed that while some immigration reform is needed, securing the border needs to come first.
“And I tell people, I said, ‘Do we need comprehensive immigration reform? Absolutely. But you can’t talk about remodeling your kitchen while your house is on fire,’” Gunderson said.
“The bipartisan border solution wasn’t a border solution,” he added, referencing the widely discussed Senate bill that has been unsuccessful.
“You have to have executive actions to fix it right away. There’s several that you could do. All the ones that Biden undid. You can implement those and then you need to have a legislative solution as well. The bottom line is you don’t need really new law to stop illegal immigration. You need an executive, a president that’s willing to enforce the current law,” Baugh said.
On crime, Baugh noted how many high-end shopping centers in his district are being impacted.
“We have a very affluent district here, and we have smash-and-grabs going on in all of our major malls, like South Coast Plaza Mall, the largest grossing mall in the world. The Spectrum…down in Irvine is in the district and Fashion Island, is in Newport in the district,” he said.
“People are starting to realize…these open borders and this lack of enforcement of criminal statutes is making crime worse.”
Even though California may not have the same state politics from the days of Gov. Ronald Reagan, many Republicans still believe the pendulum could swing back one day.
“I think your reason to stay is that there’s light at the end of the tunnel,” Gunderson said, empathizing with the millions of residents who left in recent years in what’s been dubbed the “California exodus.”
“If you think the pendulum has swung too far to the left, here’s an opportunity to jump on that pendulum and help swing it back to the center or the center-right, where a lot of people’s minds are at in this district and in the state of California. It’s the whole concept of ‘Do you want to retreat or do you want to stay and fight it through,’” he added.
Still, Democrats remain confident in their odds to retain the two seats in question. In memos, the DCCC has referred to Baugh as “dangerously extreme and out of touch” and Gunderson as “a rubber stamp on the GOP’s toxic agenda prioritizing the ultra-wealthy.”
