You could argue that no team at Euro 2024 has been more disappointing relative to their pre-tournament expectations than England.
Yes, the Three Lions topped their group, but they got there with some drab performances that saw them score two goals and create 2.2 xG (expected goals).
For reference, Georgia’s Georges Mikautadze has scored three times and created 2.3 xG on his own.
And despite all of this, England is the tournament favorites at +330.
That may sound counter-intuitive — that a team that has been underwhelming is now the favorite — but it all comes down England’s path.
They play Slovakia in the Round of 16 then, should they win, will take on the winner of Switzerland-Italy in the quarterfinals.
From there it would be either the Netherlands, Romania, Austria or Turkey in the semifinals.
Anything short of a trip to the final would be a disaster for the Three Lions.
But there are plenty of signals that suggest Slovakia could be a trickier hurdle to climb than the odds suggest.
Slovakia was lucky to beat Belgium in its opening match, but its defensive numbers were decent throughout the group stage.
The Slovak Falcons conceded just three goals (two from open play) on 4.4 expected goals.
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In this matchup you would expect Slovakia to rely on a rigid defensive structure and a bend-but-don’t-break ethos to make life difficult on a frustrated England attack.
Slovakia’s conservative approach should turn Sunday’s match into a bit of a rock fight, which would put value on the draw.
The play: England-Slovakia 90-minute draw (+330, DraftKings).
