Somehow, everything remains in front of Arch Manning. Somehow, the nation’s most disappointing player still can lead one of the nation’s more disappointing teams to the College Football Playoff.
In the 11 weeks since Manning was the consensus preseason Heisman favorite for the nation’s top-ranked team, the prince of football’s first family has become a national punchline in his first season as a starter, ranked 48th in quarterback rating and 59th in QBR. He has thrown for fewer than 175 yards in nearly half of his starts and thrown at least one interception in more than half of his starts.
Now, 11 weeks after stumbling at defending champion Ohio State, Manning gets another swing at a season-defining moment in an SEC Championship rematch against No. 5 Georgia (8-1).
No. 10 Texas (7-2) has hope, coming off a bye and four straight wins, with Manning’s past two performances marking his best two efforts of the season. Head coach Steve Sarkisian finally made changes to help Manning thrive behind a shaky offensive line and weak ground game, allowing the quarterback to get out of his head by getting the ball out of his hands quickly. That strategy may not even be necessary against an uncharacteristically unthreatening Georgia defense, which ranks 128th in the nation in sack percentage, and has contributed to the once-dominant Bulldogs having most games come down to the wire.
Manning doesn’t need to be his uncles or his grandfather to give Texas (+6) a chance. His defense — which leads the nation in sacks and is ranked second against the run — will do that. But everything is on the table if he can finally live up to his name.
Clemson (+3) over LOUISVILLE
The Cardinals coughed up their playoff hopes in last week’s stunning home upset against Cal, falling to 2-6 against the number as a favorite and 2-4 at home against power conference teams since last season. With two more wins, Dabo Swinney will become bowl-eligible.
OREGON (-25.5) over Minnesota
The Gophers have lost their past two road games by a combined 77 points, failing to reach the end zone in either game (Ohio State, Iowa). The Ducks need to flex some muscle after back-to-back underwhelming efforts from Dante Moore.
Wisconsin (+29.5) over INDIANA
A blowout is certain, but the Badgers are coming off an upset of Washington and possess a top-25 defense despite playing the nation’s second-toughest schedule. This will be Wisconsin’s fourth matchup against a team currently in the top 10, having lost by an average of 19 points in trips to Alabama and Oregon.
South Carolina (+19.5) over TEXAS A&M
The Gamecocks have nothing to lose and a new play caller (Mike Furrey), who has had two weeks to prepare for a defense that ranks 11th in the SEC in yards allowed per carry. In five games against ranked opponents, South Carolina has lost by an average of 12.2 points.
Notre Dame (-12.5) over PITTSBURGH
The line keeps growing, but the movement is justified given the Irish’s sixth-ranked average scoring margin (19.9) and a soft Pitt schedule, which has put the Panthers in the ACC title race despite their five conference wins coming against opponents who are a combined 6-25 in league play. Barring a monumental upset in the closing weeks, Notre Dame can lock up a playoff spot with its eighth straight win.
NORTHWESTERN (+11.5) over Michigan
The Wolverines (2-4 as a favorite against the spread) and double-digit lines mix like vodka and vinegar. Michigan’s 60th-ranked offense has struggled against worse defenses than a top-20 Wildcats unit, and freshman Bryce Underwood hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in nearly a month, having produced 231 yards passing in his past two starts combined.
ALABAMA (-6) over Oklahoma
The Sooners’ second-ranked run defense won’t have much to do against an Alabama attack entirely reliant on the right arm of Heisman contender Ty Simpson (21 touchdowns, one interception). The Tide will find redemption after fumbling a playoff spot last season at Oklahoma, which has allowed 708 passing yards in its past two games.
TEXAS TECH (-24) over Ucf
The Red Raiders won’t get complacent in a crowded Big 12 race and haven’t shown any sign of a letdown during this dominant season, with an average margin of victory of more than 33 points. Tech remains undefeated on the field and against the spread with Behren Morton under center. The Knights are winless on the field and against the spread in conference games on the road.
N.C. State (+14.5) over MIAMI
Never lay multiple touchdowns with a guy (Mario Cristoabal) who has more losses as a double-digit favorite (five) than any other head coach in the country in the past three years.
USC (-6.5) over Iowa
You could flip a coin if this was on a neutral field. At the Coliseum — 1,800 miles and seven days removed from Iowa’s gut-punch loss to Oregon — the advantage belongs to the Trojans, who have lost one Big Ten home game in two years while averaging 36 points per game.
Florida (+15.5) over OLE MISS
If Florida found a few breaks, and Ole Miss didn’t receive so many, the top-10 team and 3-6 embarrassment wouldn’t be so far apart. The Gators will show some fight after a bizarre blowout loss to Kentucky, playing a playoff-bound team that has nearly been defeated by three sub-.500 teams (Arkansas, Kentucky, Washington State).
Utah (-8.5) over BAYLOR
The Utes’ average margin of victory in seven wins is more than 36 points. After beating the Bears in back-to-back seasons while running for nearly 200 yards per game, Utah (7-2 against the spread as a favorite) returns from a bye with Wayshawn Parker, Devon Dampier, and the nation’s fifth-ranked ground game (5.9 yards per carry) to face Baylor’s 114th-ranked run defense.
Betting on College Football?
Ucla (+31.5) over OHIO STATE
The Buckeyes will win with ease, but the reigning champs’ disinterest in style points — ranking 26th in scoring (32.1 ppg) — makes the massive spread too risky, as demonstrated in last week’s backdoor cover by Purdue.
BYU (-4.5) over Tcu
The Cougars are 33-4 in night games in the past seven seasons under head coach Kilani Sitake. Their top-20 defense will bounce back from their first loss of the season against Josh Hoover, who has thrown six interceptions in TCU’s three losses.
BEST BETS: South Carolina, Florida, BYU.
SEASON: 73-92 (10-23).
2014-24 RECORD: 1,392-1,309-31.
