The New Jersey race for governor is a dead heat, with 49% of voters supporting Democrat Mikie Sherrill and 48% backing Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a bombshell new poll revealed Thursday.
When undecideds are pushed to say who they’re leaning toward, Sherrill’s lead increases by 1 point — 50% to 48%, the Emerson College/Pix 11/The Hill survey found.
The poll is a boost for Ciattarelli in the final days of the campaign — showing he has wiped out the 20-point lead that Sherrill boasted this summer.
The race is so close that turnout will likely decide the outcome.
Women favor North Jersey Congresswoman Sherrill by 18 percentage points, while Ciattarelli, also the 2021 candidate for governor, leads among men by 16 points.
“Since last month, Ciattarelli’s lead among men increased by four points, and Sherill’s lead among women grew by eight points,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling said.
A majority of voters — 52% — say the economy is by far the top issue facing the Garden State, which has one of the highest tax burdens in the nation, including hefty property taxes.
Only 14% of polltakers say threats to democracy is a top concern, followed by housing affordability at 11% while 5% of voters cited immigration policy and another 5% health care.
Both candidates have so-so popularity ratings from voters: 47% of voters have a favorable view of Sherrill, while 47% have an unfavorable view of her.
Meanwhile, 48% of respondents have a favorable view of Ciattarelli, while 48% have an unfavorable view of him.
Outgoing Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, who is term-limited, is deeply unpopular, the poll found.
Only 34% of voters approve of the job he is doing, while 50% disapprove and the remaining 16% have no opinion.
President Donald Trump also is underwater — but significantly more popular, with a 45% approval rating.
About 53% disapprove of the job he’s doing.
Emerson queried 1,000 voters via phone text, automated calls and a select panel from Oct. 25 to 28. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Last month, Emerson College Polling also pegged Ciattarelli and Sherrill in a dead heat, at 43% apiece. At the time, the poll had been an outlier among public surveys.
But, polling has generally tightened between the two gubernatorial hopefuls, albeit with Sherrill marginally in the lead.
The former Navy helicopter pilot currently touts a 3.7 percentage point advantage over businessman Ciattarelli, according to the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling down in the race.
That’s down from 9.3 percentage points at the start of September.
Notably, the RCP aggregate underestimated Ciattarelli’s support by about 5 percentage points in 2021, when he narrowly lost to then-incumbent Murphy.
Despite his recent gains in polling, Ciattarelli is also dealing with warning signs in the early voting data.
Of all the early voters who cast mail-in ballots or in-person votes, 54% were registered Democrats and 28% were registered Republicans, according to data compiled by Michael Pruser, Director of Data Science for Decision.
