Bill Self and No. 4 Kansas open up the March Madness slate against No. 13 California Baptist in East Region play.
The Jayhawks are looking to shake off a 22-point blowout loss to Houston in the Big 12 semifinals, while Cal Baptist takes a ride down I-5 South to San Diego, having won six straight games.
Kansas is a 13.5-point favorite, with the Over/Under set at 138.5 total points, per BetMGM Sportsbook.
With No. 12-seed High Point emphatically beating No. 5 Wisconsin, followed by No. 11-seed VCU’s stunning overtime victory against No. 6-seed UNC on Thursday, the underdogs have injected nervousness into the bracket, validating the belief that any team can win.
Could we see another shocker in this No. 13 vs. No. 4 matchup?
California Baptist vs. Kansas prediction, best bet.
Darryn Peterson’s inconsistent ability to play a full 40 minutes has been the defining narrative of Kansas’ season.
Despite cramping or persistent injuries for the NBA prospect, Kansas managed a 10-2 record without him in the lineup.
His ability to score at all three levels complements the Jayhawks’ top-10 defensive efficiency when he’s on the floor. However, poor shooting nights—such as his 3-of-18 performance at Arizona State—can lead to nightmarish losses for his team.
Melvin Council Jr.’s performance at point guard will be crucial following a poor showing in the Big 12 tournament, where he shot 4-of-26 in two games.
He remains the team’s assist leader, averaging 5.1 per game.
With Flory Bidunga dominating the paint with almost 2.5 blocks per game, Kansas is positioned to potentially seize control later in the contest.
Cal Baptist brings a strong team rebounding approach as well, leading the Western Athletic Conference with 39.9 boards per outing.
Sure, the WAC is not a household name in basketball, but make no mistake, the Lancers’ 25-8 overall record earned them their first-ever bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Cal Baptist, like Kansas, also boasts a clear primary offensive threat in 5-foot-10 Dominique Daniels Jr.
Daniels Jr. is a potent scorer, averaging 23.2 points per game, the fifth-most in Division I, and his perimeter prowess could create difficulties for Kansas, which has struggled to defend the arc.
While the Jayhawks’ recent 4-5 record over their last nine games is concerning, Cal Baptist presents multiple challenges.
Unlike many other high seeds, the Lancers have faced and lost to three Big 12 teams the Jayhawks are familiar with in BYU (a blowout loss), along with relatively close defeats to Colorado and Utah.
Betting on College Basketball?
Adding to the difficulty is the Lancers’ near-top-50 defense, which ranks 51st in adjusted efficiency on KenPom, and near home-court advantage, as this game is about two hours from their campus.
Given these factors, the best betting strategy is a play on the first half, as the game is likely to be much closer than expected heading into halftime.
I’m picking Cal Baptist to cover the first half spread because of the Jayhawks’ tendency to get off to slow starts and their mediocre 5-6 road record away from the Phog this season.
The PLAY: California Baptist +8 first-half spread (-115, bet365 Sportsbook)
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Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.
