The New York Yankees open their 2025 campaign against the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday.
The Bombers enter the season as the consensus betting favorite to win the American League pennant, but there are plenty of skeptics who believe they will not live up to those expectations after a dramatic offseason and the injury to Gerrit Cole.
The Brewers are the second-favorite to win the NL Central, but their 83.5 Over/Under paints them as an average outfit.
Carlos Rodon, who went 16-9 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 175 innings in 2024, will toe the rubber for the Pinstripes.
Freddy Peralta, who notched 200 strikeouts in 175 innings last season, will get the ball for the Brew Crew.
The Yankees are a -164 favorite on Opening Day.
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Brewers vs. Yankees betting preview
Baseball is already a difficult sport to project due to the variance, and the job only gets trickier on Opening Day.
Bettors have to rely on data from the previous season, as well as projections for the new campaign, to try to find value in a given game.
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The Brewers were bang-average against left-handed pitching in 2024, posting a .312 wOBA and 99 wRC+. That is slightly worse than their overall numbers, but it’s nothing drastic.
The Yankees lineup looks quite different from what we saw in 2024, but they were the league leaders in wOBA, wRC+, and home runs against righties last season.
Brewers vs. Yankees pick
Rodon can be a volatile pitcher given his habit of getting bit by the long ball, but the Brewers are not the type of team to fear in that regard.
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We know that the Bombers can score in a hurry and put up crooked numbers, but the lineup won’t be as prolific until Giancarlo Stanton returns.
Given the chilly conditions, the pitching matchup, and the current iteration of the Yankees’ lineup, this one has the right ingredients for a play on the Under.
The Pick: Under 8 runs (-115, Caesars Sportsbook)
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Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
