The word “tanking” is now part of the sports lexicon, and bettors are well-versed in this epidemic and fine print as they play a major role in handicapping.
The NBA has tweaked rules to curb tanking, but unless drastic change occurs, the gerund form of this recently discovered verb is unfortunately here to stay.
The main reason for this plague is how bottom-feeder teams are rewarded for more losses. Specifically, the draft lottery’s odds for the top overall pick are directly correlated to win percentage.
The league has leveled off some of that, giving the three worst teams the same exact odds of 14.0 percent. However, the fourth-worst win percentage has 12.5 percent and the fifth-worst has 10.5 percent, and so forth.
Additionally, the odds apply only to the top four picks. Thus, each place in the standings automatically secures a certain draft slot, thereby directly incentivizing a team to finish worse in the standings.
Additionally, the NBA’s commonplace trades involve much more than players switching uniforms. Teams sweeten offers by agreeing to contingency outcomes of swapping draft picks. Those contingencies often serve as protection for landing a desirable lottery pick, which also accentuates handicapping angles.
All this brings us to the Philadelphia 76ers, who absolutely must keep losing games. While they have sustained legitimate injuries, skeptics presume the team is also sitting healthy players that would help them win.
They currently hold the fifth-worst record and will keep their draft pick if they land among the top six. If not, the Oklahoma City Thunder get Philly’s pick.
This consequence far outweighs a difference in percentage points of pingpong balls. Philly absolutely must keep losing to either worsen its place or protect other teams from finishing with more losses.
If the draft lottery were held today, the Sixers would land no worse than the ninth pick. That would take a statistical anomaly, but it is possible. Since the lottery odds became weighted in this new format beginning with the 2019 NBA Draft, the team with the fifth-worst record finished outside of the top six picks two times.
Now, one thing to realize is that the players who do suit up will compete. They do not care about draft position, as they are often fighting for secured contracts and also possess normal competitiveness. Plus, and more importantly, the point spread often finds a way to level most matchups.
Betting on the NBA?
With that being said, I like the Milwaukee Bucks as a road favorite against the Sixers on Thursday. Milwaukee is chasing a better playoff seed and Philly simply does not have the horses to compete. The point spread is supposed to be the great equalizer for all games, but this type of scenario complicates that school of thought.
In fact, the Sixers have failed to cover the spread in eight straight games. Philly is full steam ahead with tanking and can ill afford to win. Thus, I will back the Bucks as road chalk and hope to improve my 36-22 ATS record in this Post sports section.
