A month ago, it looked like Carlos Alcaraz had the yips.
The Spaniard had just lost to David Goffin at the Miami Masters, his second defeat in as many matches after he fell to Jack Draper in the Indian Wells semifinals.
It was a stretch to say Alcaraz, who won 13 of his first 15 matches in 2025, was struggling, but he’s such a talent that any blip in form will get tongues wagging.
Alcaraz can silence the critics with a win over Lorenzo Musetti in Sunday’s final at the Monte Carlo Masters.
Alcaraz is a -400 favorite to lift the trophy.
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Alcaraz vs. Musetti betting preview
Alcaraz’s return to form is certainly the big story ahead of Sunday’s final, but it’s his opponent that has had the more noteworthy run to the final.
It’s been a relatively slow start to the season for Musetti. The Italian was ousted in Round 3 of the Australian Open and then barely played during the Golden Swing because of injury. He didn’t make any noise at Indian Wells or Miami, either.
However, Musetti has found his form in Monte Carlo.
The World No. 16 defeated Jiri Lehecka, Matteo Berrettini, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Alex de Minaur to get to the final, his first ever at the Masters 1000 level.
Alcaraz vs. Musetti pick
Both of these players will be under heavy pressure on Sunday. This would be the biggest win of Musetti’s career, while Alcaraz is looking to get back on track before next month’s French Open.
The moneyline odds seem fair for this tilt, but the total has some value.
Musetti’s game is in such a good spot, that it’s hard to imagine him no-showing on Sunday. He should provide a stern test, at the very least, for Alcaraz.
Throw in the fact that Alcaraz has dropped a set in two of his four matches and was taken to a tie-breaker in another, and you’ve got the right ingredients for a play on the Over 20.5 games.
The Pick: Over 20.5 games (BetMGM)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
