The Stars and Oilers will meet in the Western Conference finals for the second year in a row.
Edmonton won the 2024 iteration of this series in six games. This is the third time in four years that the Oilers have made it to the conference finals, while the Stars have featured in this round three years on the spin and four times since 2020.
The most interesting part of handicapping this year’s matchup is how the perception of these two teams has changed over the past four weeks.
Although the Oilers and Stars were both among the favorites to win the Western Conference for the entire season, they were both unpopular picks when the playoffs started.
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Oilers vs. Stars series predictions and preview
Edmonton looked uninspiring for much of the stretch run during the regular season and had questions to answer in goal, while Dallas fell apart in the final two weeks of the regular season and was dealing with injuries to Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson.
Both the Oilers and Stars overcame those flaws with impressive wins in the first two rounds of the postseason.
It’s no wonder that the bookmakers have essentially priced this best-of-7 series as a coin flip, with the Oilers sitting as a slight -118 favorite at FanDuel.
The Oilers have been dominant since Game 2 of Round 1. After falling behind Los Angeles 2-0 in that series, Edmonton has won eight of its past nine games and outscored its opponents 36-22 in that span.
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Oilers | -120 |
| Stars | +100 |
Averaging four goals a contest over any nine-game stretch is impressive, but to do it against the Kings and Golden Knights, who finished second and third, respectively, in goals allowed in the regular season is downright splendid.
The Oilers will now face the team that finished sixth in goals allowed in the Western Conference finals.
Dallas hasn’t looked like a defensive juggernaut during these playoffs, but that’s likely because of the path the Stars have had to take to get to this point. They dispatched the high-octane Avalanche in Game 7 in Round 1, and then had to deal with the Jets, the Presidents’ Trophy winners, in Round 2.
In previous years, defensive lapses would be fatal for Dallas because it lacked the offensive upside to make up for them, but this version of the Stars is built differently thanks to the arrival of Mikko Rantanen.
Rantanen may not be in the same tier as Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, but he’s not far behind, especially given his current form.
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Rantanen will need to bring his “A game” to this series, as the Oilers offense is clicking like no other team in the playoffs this spring.
Edmonton is averaging 15.7 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in this postseason, which is incredible when you recall that the Oilers have posted that gaudy number against the Kings and Knights.
Goaltender Jake Oettinger will have his work cut out for him, but he’s been terrific through the first two rounds and provides Dallas with a massive upgrade over Edmonton’s goaltending situation.
Stuart Skinner has posted back-to-back shutouts for the Oilers, but he was really struggling before that. With Calvin Pickard injured, Skinner will have to shoulder the load in this series.
The margins for this series are expected to be razor thin, which makes any mistake crucial. That’s what makes Edmonton’s goaltending situation so perilous, especially since they’re the favorite.
Oettinger should be the difference-maker in this best-of-seven.
The Play: Stars series moneyline (+100, bet365)
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Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
