The idea that Anthony Duclair would walk in this season as if he hadn’t missed a step, put the injury-addled mess that was 2024-25 behind him and be the 25-goal, 40-plus-point player the Islanders thought they were signing in July 2024 was always fanciful, even for the most optimistic observer.
Still, 11 games into the Islanders’ season, the state of play for Duclair doesn’t look that much better than it did last March, when he was playing his way into coach Patrick Roy’s public ire on a torn groin.
The 30-year-old Duclair has three points in 11 games, and on a per-60-minute basis is barely scraping a better scoring rate than he did last season — 1.1 points vs. 1.0. It’s not just the lack of points, either. Duclair is disappearing for games at a time.
He has an abysmal 35.28 expected goals rate at five-on-five, and that’s despite playing a significant chunk of minutes alongside Mat Barzal, whose 47.47 xGF rate is fifth on the Islanders.
After an unproductive spell on Barzal’s wing, Duclair was dropped from the top line to the fourth, and bumped off the second power-play unit, for Friday night’s 3-1 win over Washington to make room for Cal Ritchie, and it’s getting easy to wonder whether Max Shabanov’s eventual return from an upper-body injury will result in his spot in the lineup becoming at risk.
“I think it’s improving each and every game,” Duclair told The Post last week when asked to evaluate his game. “I think it’s improving each and every game. Feeling more and more confident as we go along here.
“Personally, I could be more aggressive. Get to the net more, get some shots off. In terms of how I’m feeling, I’m feeling great. No complaints. I just want to keep improving every day.”
The groin, he said, is completely fine, though like many players coming off long-term injuries, perhaps there’s still a degree of confidence missing from Duclair’s game.
“It’s hard coming back from injury,” Kyle Palmieri, who has done so more than once and who until Friday was on Duclair’s line, told The Post. “It’s something that, you’re always noticing it. I think with a part of the body you need a lot as a hockey player, it’s hard not to focus on that and dwell on it, even coming back and you know it’s healthy.”
Unlike players who get hurt in the middle of a season, Duclair had a full summer — albeit one he’s admitted did not go as planned — and a full training camp to get right. He wasn’t jumping on a moving train.
“Speed-wise, I think it’s there,” Duclair said. “Doing everything possible in terms of preparation to be ready for games, practices, stuff like that. I think my skating’s pretty good. Just gotta use it more efficiently at times.”
What exactly does that mean?
“I don’t think picking your spots is the word for it,” Palmieri said. “I think giving himself the opportunity to be in open ice and use his speed and his skill is something that, I think as your career goes on, you find yourself more comfortable and maybe not thinking about it as much. But when you miss time like that, the way he had last year, it’s hard to get that timing back.”
One thing here is fairly certain: The fourth line does not seem like a permanent solution.
Duclair, at his best, plays a game of speed, skill and scoring. There’s little point in having him play the fourth line, as his 9:13 of ice time Friday betrayed.
If he can’t force his way off it, then it’s fair to wonder what comes next.
