Will Cooper Flagg and Duke still be playing next week? Probably.
But I didn’t envision Zion Williamson, Kyrie Irving or J.J. Redick’s journeys ending before the Final Four, either.
Alabama (+6.5) over Duke
No team in NCAA Tournament history ever made as many 3s as Alabama did (25) in its Sweet 16 win over BYU. No team in the tournament has scored as many points as Alabama did (113) in 17 years. There is no chance that the No. 2 seed repeats those feats in the Elite Eight, but the highest-scoring team in the nation doesn’t need to, already proving it can best the top teams in the nation, with wins over 1-seeds Auburn and Houston. The Tide are also 12-6 against the spread versus ranked teams and 6-2 as an underdog.
The Blue Devils may be the most talented team in the nation, but its top-five defense has barely been tested, facing one top 20 attack since Dec. 4. That matchup ended with Arizona scoring 93 points in the Sweet 16. The Crimson Tide are one of the 10 most experienced teams in the nation, led by Mark Sears and a core only one year removed from reaching the Final Four. If Alabama gets hot from outside, there is nothing Cooper Flagg can do. If not, Alabama is just as happy to get to the rim, posting the third-highest two-point shooting percentage (60.1) in the nation, with the physicality and athleticism to match the title favorite.
Florida (-6.5) over Texas Tech
Only four teams in the nation have better offensive efficiency than Texas Tech. There is Duke. There is Auburn, which suffered a nine-point home loss to Florida. There is Alabama, which went 0-2 against the Gators despite home and neutral settings. And there is also Florida, which has lost once since Feb. 1 — winning its past 10 games by an average of 14.7 points — and owns the nation’s fourth-best record against the spread (27-10).
Todd Golden’s group is at its best against elite competition, going 9-2 against the spread against ranked teams and 5-1 outright against opponents who earned a 2-seed or higher. The Red Raiders, though, have gone 2-5 against teams with a 4-seed or higher, covering just one of five games against ranked teams. Texas Tech is lucky to be here after overcoming a 16-point second-half deficit to Arkansas. But the shooting and rebounding that brought them back won’t work against a top-10 rebounding unit and the nation’s fifth-ranked perimeter defense.
Betting on College Basketball?
Without sharpshooter Chance McMillian, the Raiders’ seven-man rotation — five players logged at least 37 minutes in the Sweet 16 — will wear down against the size, depth and balance of the Gators, who will return to the Final Four for the first time in 11 years.
This season: 23-26
2011-24 record: 378-340-12
