There is a common misconception that the Heisman Trophy always goes to one of the preseason favorites.
Unlike the NFL MVP, which seemingly just goes to the best quarterback every season, the list of players who can win the Heisman is much longer and more diverse.
While we haven’t seen a non-QB be named NFL MVP since 2012, two of them (DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter) have won the Heisman in the last five years.
Furthermore, only two of the last six Heisman winners (Bryce Young and Caleb Williams) boasted single-digit odds heading into Week 1 in that span, while three of the last six winners (Joe Burrow, Smith, and Hunter) went into the season at 40/1 or longer (Smith was the biggest price at 100/1).
So, just because Arch Manning (Texas), Garrett Nussmeier (LSU), Cade Klubnik (Clemson), and Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) are at the top of the betting board doesn’t mean that this is a four-horse race between the favorites.
In fact, there’s a very real chance that two or three of those players fall out of the picture completely by Halloween.
We saw that happen last year when Dillon Gabriel, Carson Beck, Quinn Ewers, and Jalen Milroe entered Week 1 as the betting favorites.
Of that group, only Gabriel cracked the top 10 in Heisman voting.
You could argue that this year’s favorite, Manning, is an outlier and will be impossible to beat given his pedigree and the outsized media attention he will receive, but I’d push back on that.
Texas’ and Manning’s expectations are sky high, but if they don’t reach them, the presumptive 2026 No. 1 overall pick’s Heisman hopes will take a real hit.
If they do stumble, this race blows wide open, as the other favorites all feel lukewarm.
Nussmeier’s LSU could fail to stand out in the loaded SEC, while we’re still waiting for a true star turn from Klubnik at Clemson.
As for Smith, he’s a wide receiver, so it’s naturally going to be harder for him to win the award.
Perhaps one of the trendy sleepers like DJ Lagway (18/1) or LaNorris Sellers (16/1) makes good on their considerable hype, but their odds have already taken a hit, especially when you peek around at some of the prices being offered on some other contenders.
In fact, there’s one player out there (a quarterback, no less) at 500/1 (BetMGM) whose profile is on par with several of the favorites in this market.
The only problem is that this player plays for Navy, which hasn’t had a Heisman winner since Roger Staubach in 1963.
And before you roll your eyes and move on to Page Six, let’s lay out the case for Blake Horvath.
Horvath, who is entering his senior year at Annapolis, was responsible for 30 touchdowns for the Midshipmen in 2024, running for 17 and adding 13 more through the air.
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The Hillard, Ohio, native also finished 20th in the country with 1,254 yards on the ground, averaging 7.1 yards per carry.
Horvath, in his first year as a starter, was a key reason why Navy was one of the surprise packages in 2024, going 10-3 and beating Oklahoma in a bowl game.
There’s a real chance that Horvath and the Midshipmen are even better in 2025.
Not only is Navy returning plenty of production from their terrific 2024 team, but they’ve also got a soft schedule that gives them a real chance at gatecrashing the College Football Playoff.
If that happens, you can expect Horvath to have plenty of hype behind him.
Winning over the media is a massive part of winning the Heisman, and it will be nearly impossible for any journalist to ignore the story of a Navy quarterback leading the Midshipmen to the Playoff.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
